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▶ Models

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P&L

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▶ Go Live · preparation checklist · nothing wired

● LIVE IS OFF Nothing in this section is connected to execution. It is a static checklist, not live state — the arming controls live in the Models panel above.

gates cleared

3 / 8

as of 2026-08-24

hard blockers

must clear before any capital

live capital

$0.00

wallet unfunded by design

executor

disarmed

present, never armed

gate	what it requires	status
Forecast calibration	Ensemble Brier must beat the market/base rate on held-out questions	BLOCKED · re-run 08-18 failed uniformly
A significant book	One paper book profitable beyond noise over a multi-week window	BLOCKED · drift is the best book and still only t=+0.85 over 20 days; needs ~106
Break-even win rate	Realised win rate above the payoff-implied bar, not above 50%	CLEARED · 9 of 11 drift books beat their own bar; the 2 below it are the 2 that lost money
Execution cost	Fills modelled on real depth, not snapshot/mid	MEASURED · bookwalk arms pay real VWAP
Fee model	Taker fee charged on the same side live charges it	MODELLED · maker and taker are equal here
Position sizing	A size rule that survives its own capacity test	PARTIAL · size A/Bs still confounded
Kill switch	One action that halts entries and is provable from outside the process	PARTIAL · drain path proven, no armed-state drill
Funding + limits	Wallet funded to a stated cap with a per-day loss limit	NOT STARTED · needs a human decision

Ordering is deliberate: the first three are gates on whether an edge exists at all, and no amount of execution work substitutes for them. Statuses are hand-maintained as of 2026-08-24 and do not refresh — treat a stale stamp as unknown, not as pass.

▶ Copy Traders

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▶ Analyst Desk · non-weather markets

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▶ Cross-venue Gap Monitor · Kalshi vs Polymarket · read-only

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▶ Latest Development